{"version":"1.0","generated_at":"2026-10-04T19:08:32.952001","id":1395,"slug":"nyu-finance-professor-damodaran-warns-an-ai-crash-could-hit-harder-than-the-dot-com-bust","title":"趋势解读：NYU finance professor Damodaran warns an AI crash，提升开发者接入体验","summary":"纽约大学金融教授达莫达兰警告AI行业崩溃可能比互联网泡沫更痛苦，质疑商业模式可扩展性，并指出AI投资的高债务风险和对社会的潜在冲击。","abstract":"趋势解读：NYU finance professor Damodaran warns an AI crash，提升开发者接入体验 纽约大学金融教授达莫达兰警告AI行业崩溃可能比互联网泡沫更痛苦，质疑商业模式可扩展性，并指出AI投资的高债务风险和对社会的潜在冲击。 AI行业高债务和重资产模式使崩盘风险比互联网泡沫更可怕。 每多一个用户就多一份算力成本，规模经济不如传统软件。 若AI实现替代工作目标，白领失业将引发巨大社会成本。 苹果的谨慎策略优于盲目追投，克制是价值的一部分。 投资者需关注AI巨头资本支出和折旧，而非仅看利润。 纽约大学金融学教授阿斯瓦斯·达莫达兰 (Aswath Damodaran) 警告称，人工智能行业的潜在崩溃可能比 2000 年左右互联网泡沫的破裂更痛苦。他在播客“无形经济”中解释说，与互联网时代不同，人工智能行业需要对实体基础设施进行大规模投资，其中大部分是通过债务融资的。如果出现调整，损失不仅会落在股东身上，还会波及整个社会。达莫达兰还质疑人工智能商业模式是否能够按照人们期望的方式扩展。在他看来，人工智能不是传统的软件业务。随着更多用户加入，成本不会自动降至零。每次额外使用都会消耗计算资源，类似于 Spotify 为每次流媒体付费的方式。这使得规模经济远弱于 Netflix 的情况，达莫达兰将其与 Spotify 进行了对比：Netflix 的高内容成本分散在不断增长的用户群中，而 Spotify 则按流付费。增长与微薄的利润相结合实际上可能会破坏价值。此外，还存在来自 Deepseek 等中国竞争对手的价格侵蚀风险。利润率已经很低了。达莫达兰还对牛…","access_level":"public","access_label":"公开","access_mode":"full","is_preview":false,"canonical_url":"https://opc.beizhux.com/content/1395/nyu-finance-professor-damodaran-warns-an-ai-crash-could-hit-harder-than-the-dot-com-bust","html_url":"https://opc.beizhux.com/content/1395/nyu-finance-professor-damodaran-warns-an-ai-crash-could-hit-harder-than-the-dot-com-bust","json_url":"https://opc.beizhux.com/content/1395/nyu-finance-professor-damodaran-warns-an-ai-crash-could-hit-harder-than-the-dot-com-bust.json","published_at":"2026-06-20T20:26:57","updated_at":"2026-10-04T18:36:32","category":{"slug":"hotspots","name":"全球热点解读"},"source":{"site":"the-decoder.com","author":"Matthias Bastian","url":"https://the-decoder.com/nyu-finance-professor-damodaran-warns-an-ai-crash-could-hit-harder-than-the-dot-com-bust/"},"tags":["AI","AI泡沫","The 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关联原因：这篇内容命中「热点解读」等主题信号。；这篇内容来自该专题长期覆盖的栏目。；这篇内容来自该专题长期覆盖的栏目。"},{"question":"阅读这篇文章建议先理解哪些关键词？","answer":"建议先理解AI日报、每日AI日报、AI信号、热点解读、BuilderPulse这些关键词，再结合正文判断工具、机会或风险是否值得进入自己的工作流。"}],"terms":[{"slug":"ai-daily-term","name":"AI日报","definition":"在AI觉醒星球里，「AI日报」属于「AI日报」方向。持续整理每日AI日报、模型更新、工具变化和行业信号，帮你快速判断哪些信息值得收藏、验证和行动。 每天先看趋势，再决定今天该试什么。","topic_slug":"ai-daily","topic_name":"AI日报","topic_title":"AI日报：每日AI信号、工具动态与行动判断","topic_url":"https://opc.beizhux.com/topics/ai-daily","topic_path":"/topics/ai-daily","url":"https://opc.beizhux.com/glossary/ai-daily-term","path":"/glossary/ai-daily-term","json_url":"https://opc.beizhux.com/glossary/ai-daily-term.json"},{"slug":"daily-ai-briefing","name":"每日AI日报","definition":"在AI觉醒星球里，「每日AI日报」属于「AI日报」方向。持续整理每日AI日报、模型更新、工具变化和行业信号，帮你快速判断哪些信息值得收藏、验证和行动。 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